Kudos to my colleagues at CollegeFootballNews.com for coming up with a telling statistic about the state of USC football:
In each of the past two seasons, the Trojans have outscored their opponents in each of the first three quarters … only to be outscored in the fourth.
Cumulatively, USC had a 102-point advantage through the first three quarters last season. In the final quarter, opponents held a 46-point edge.
In 2009, the numbers were plus-87 and minus-11.
Before ’09, USC hadn’t allowed fewer points than it scored in the fourth quarter since 2000 — a.k.a., 1 B.C. (Before Carroll).
What does that say about the program?
1. It’s been in a state of transition, with young players who lack closing experience in prominent roles.
2. Depth isn’t nearly what it used to be, swinging the end-game advantage to the other sideline.
Issue No. 1 shoudn’t be a problem this season, with veterans running the show on both sides of the ball (Matt Barkley, Chris Galippo, T.J. McDonald).
Issue No. 2 won’t be as bad as it was a year ago, but lack of depth will be a lingering concern because of the NCAA sanctions. Teams with 75 scholarship players simply don’t have as much ammo as those with 85.
Every team in every sport talks about finishing. For these Trojans, who’ve faltered in the fourth, it’s imperative.
A few additional notes from my research on by-quarter scoring:
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* Last season marked the first time since 2000 that USC was outscored in the second half.
* In 2007, USC surrendered just as many points as it scored in the fourth quarter. But overall, that team outscored its opponents, 424-208, and finished 11-2.
* The aforementioned 2000 team allowed only one more point than it scored in the fourth quarter — but got outscored by 38 points in the first and 14 in the third.
* The 1999 squad was the last one to match the ’09-10 pattern of winning quarters 1-3 (plus-111) and losing the fourth (minus-38).